Eine gute Zusammenfassung in Twitter Style Thesen (von Fred Desin, https://twitter.com/fdestin/status/1065329231545204737)
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Dollars should be focused into capacity constrained strategies that attack the early stages. Venture does not scale.
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There are no signs that this is not a good time to enter the asset class. Technology led innovation is pervasive and cumulative.
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The industry returns are driven by “prescient GP and outlier founders”. With very few exceptions - firm advantages don’t matter.
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Investing with more metrics means less alpha. Period.
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the best early stage investors are “foxes”- polymaths with broad peripheral vision.
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Market timing is hugely important - i.e. capturing technologies at the correct inflection point as driven by market forces.
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there is no structural barrier to entry for new managers. (Relevant) networks are hugely important but attached to partner not firm, so there is no cold start problem.
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good funds that have deliberately constrained themselves continue to operate in the top quartile. Or as I always put it, “capital constraints are your friend”.
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on the flip side: AUM creep dilutes returns.
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historical data shows that a concentrated portfolio (<25) offers the highest upside
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reserves management is critical - capital and time must be concentrated in the winners. Note everyone understands this conceptually but many firms and GPs do the exact opposite.
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generalist firms that can rapidly appraise and capture the inherent value in technological breakthroughs have historically captured the outliers.
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whilst VC is auto correlated and initial successes matter - there is strong evidence of mean reversion as GPs struggle to stay hungry and mentally agile (paraphrasing here).