Unpacking Alpha! Eine der besten Serien über Venture Capital und Erfolgsfaktoren

Eine gute Zusammenfassung in Twitter Style Thesen (von Fred Desin, https://twitter.com/fdestin/status/1065329231545204737)

  1. Dollars should be focused into capacity constrained strategies that attack the early stages. Venture does not scale.

  2. There are no signs that this is not a good time to enter the asset class. Technology led innovation is pervasive and cumulative.

  3. The industry returns are driven by “prescient GP and outlier founders”. With very few exceptions - firm advantages don’t matter.

  4. Investing with more metrics means less alpha. Period.

  5. the best early stage investors are “foxes”- polymaths with broad peripheral vision.

  6. Market timing is hugely important - i.e. capturing technologies at the correct inflection point as driven by market forces.

  7. there is no structural barrier to entry for new managers. (Relevant) networks are hugely important but attached to partner not firm, so there is no cold start problem.

  8. good funds that have deliberately constrained themselves continue to operate in the top quartile. Or as I always put it, “capital constraints are your friend”.

  9. on the flip side: AUM creep dilutes returns.

  10. historical data shows that a concentrated portfolio (<25) offers the highest upside

  11. reserves management is critical - capital and time must be concentrated in the winners. Note everyone understands this conceptually but many firms and GPs do the exact opposite.

  12. generalist firms that can rapidly appraise and capture the inherent value in technological breakthroughs have historically captured the outliers.

  13. whilst VC is auto correlated and initial successes matter - there is strong evidence of mean reversion as GPs struggle to stay hungry and mentally agile (paraphrasing here).

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